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[00:00.000 --> 00:04.080]  I'm Dave Champion, one of the struggles I have when I put these video presentations
[00:04.080 --> 00:08.760]  together for you is how many facts, how much data, how many conclusions, how much material
[00:08.760 --> 00:12.720]  to cover, how long to make the video, so I'm gonna try and keep this one short.
[00:12.720 --> 00:17.520]  The subject is that of course once again the media is driving fear and panic by talking
[00:17.520 --> 00:23.200]  about increased cases and increased cases all around the country, we're all gonna die.
[00:23.200 --> 00:27.960]  What is the actual scene as far as deaths are concerned?
[00:35.400 --> 00:36.960]  So here's how I'm gonna try and do this.
[00:36.960 --> 00:41.160]  Number one I'm gonna present you with some graphs that show data that is fairly representative
[00:41.160 --> 00:42.960]  of what's going on across the United States.
[00:42.960 --> 00:46.920]  Then number two I'm going to give you the exception and number three I'm gonna tell
[00:46.920 --> 00:52.280]  you why the general rule is what it is at this time in the United States.
[00:52.280 --> 00:55.340]  This is a graph of the state of Arizona.
[00:55.340 --> 01:00.840]  This red line represents the cases as they are increasing in the state of Arizona.
[01:00.840 --> 01:05.120]  Of course you can see that's happening after they initially hit herd immunity and they're
[01:05.120 --> 01:10.420]  still in herd immunity, it's just that now a different susceptible group is being impacted
[01:10.420 --> 01:14.160]  because the weather's getting a little bit cooler, not all that bad in Arizona, but people
[01:14.160 --> 01:19.680]  are going indoors and with changing behavioral patterns comes changing infection patterns.
[01:19.680 --> 01:23.120]  Now let's switch and look at deaths.
[01:23.120 --> 01:28.080]  This is a graph showing the data of deaths from COVID-19 in Arizona.
[01:28.080 --> 01:31.520]  As you can see there are two lines, there's a fairly fluorescent green line and a red
[01:31.520 --> 01:32.520]  line.
[01:32.520 --> 01:38.000]  The green line shows the general trend of COVID-19 deaths in the state of Arizona from
[01:38.000 --> 01:40.720]  late July until just a day or two ago.
[01:40.720 --> 01:48.360]  The red line, you notice here on the left side, that's the date that infections began
[01:48.360 --> 01:50.960]  to rise in the state of Arizona.
[01:50.960 --> 01:52.960]  That's why I didn't elongate that red line.
[01:52.960 --> 01:59.040]  This part right here is where cases began to increase and of course you can see the
[01:59.040 --> 02:04.220]  red line, what happened as far as deaths from COVID-19 are concerned.
[02:04.220 --> 02:07.000]  This graph shows data concerning new infections in the state of Nevada.
[02:07.000 --> 02:14.040]  You can see right here about September 8th, cases started increasing and they've increased
[02:14.040 --> 02:18.200]  pretty significantly, you can see that in the red line.
[02:18.200 --> 02:24.160]  So at the same time they're increasing what's going on with COVID-19 deaths in the state
[02:24.160 --> 02:25.680]  of Nevada.
[02:25.680 --> 02:32.000]  So yeah, again the green line shows the general trend in COVID-19 deaths in the state of
[02:32.000 --> 02:39.760]  Nevada and the red line, this left point right here is where new infections started increasing
[02:39.760 --> 02:42.520]  and you see what happens with deaths, right?
[02:42.520 --> 02:47.240]  They're plummeting even as new infections are increasing.
[02:47.240 --> 02:51.580]  All right, so if we look at Arizona and Nevada and they're fairly representative of what's
[02:51.580 --> 02:56.300]  going on in most of the states, let's look at the United States overall.
[02:56.300 --> 03:02.340]  This graph shows the data for the United States in its entirety of new daily infections and
[03:02.340 --> 03:08.320]  as you can see right here, September 7th, we see a pretty dramatic upturn.
[03:08.320 --> 03:14.420]  So what's going on with deaths in the United States?
[03:14.420 --> 03:19.160]  And again, you see the same trend, the green line is the general trend and the red line
[03:19.160 --> 03:24.960]  as in the previous graphs shows the left-hand part of the red line is the date that the
[03:24.960 --> 03:31.000]  increase in new daily infections began in the United States and this shows while the
[03:31.000 --> 03:36.040]  new daily infection rates were climbing, what was happening to the death rate, yeah, it's
[03:36.040 --> 03:37.040]  dropping.
[03:37.360 --> 03:42.360]  All right, so that's part one, what's going on with the new daily infections versus the
[03:42.360 --> 03:45.360]  mortality rate or the death toll from COVID-19.
[03:45.360 --> 03:49.840]  Now I want to get into the second part which is the exception.
[03:49.840 --> 03:57.380]  The exception are rural states that have not been impacted up until about six to eight
[03:57.380 --> 03:58.780]  weeks ago.
[03:58.780 --> 04:03.160]  What's happening with the rural states is as their new daily infections are rising,
[04:03.160 --> 04:04.600]  so is the death toll.
[04:04.600 --> 04:12.000]  However, and this is a really important part, a high death toll, a high death toll for most
[04:12.000 --> 04:18.120]  of these rural states in a given day is low double digits, you know, maybe 12 or 20.
[04:18.120 --> 04:21.720]  I think the highest one I saw when I was looking today was 49.
[04:21.720 --> 04:25.880]  So the death rates are nothing like they are in the big states.
[04:25.880 --> 04:31.380]  For instance, at its peak, New York was experiencing over a thousand deaths a day.
[04:31.380 --> 04:36.980]  So these rural states, they are, it's I guess we can call a case of first impression, I'm
[04:36.980 --> 04:38.900]  borrowing that from the law.
[04:38.900 --> 04:45.380]  Those states didn't go into herd immunity and now they're merely seeing a different
[04:45.380 --> 04:49.900]  group of susceptible people hit because behavioral patterns are changing.
[04:49.900 --> 04:51.060]  That's not what's going on.
[04:51.060 --> 04:55.080]  They weren't hit to begin with and now they are being hit.
[04:55.080 --> 05:00.820]  So they're going through a part that the more populous states went through five months ago.
[05:00.820 --> 05:08.500]  On to point number three, why are daily infection numbers climbing and death tolls dropping?
[05:08.500 --> 05:15.140]  Okay, so first of all, I want to say, and I know this irritates a lot of the covidiots,
[05:15.140 --> 05:19.780]  testing between September and now has gone up dramatically.
[05:19.780 --> 05:22.500]  If you take a look at the graph, which I forgot to prepare for this, if you take a look at
[05:22.500 --> 05:24.380]  the graph, the line is like this.
[05:24.380 --> 05:25.580]  This is what's going on with testing.
[05:25.580 --> 05:28.580]  Okay, so you're going to get a lot more positives.
[05:28.580 --> 05:30.380]  But is that the only thing that's going on here?
[05:30.380 --> 05:34.260]  No, we've talked about this before in another video that it's getting cold.
[05:34.260 --> 05:35.260]  People are going inside.
[05:35.260 --> 05:38.740]  And when you change behavioral patterns, you change the infection pattern.
[05:38.740 --> 05:42.400]  So here's how most contagions work.
[05:42.400 --> 05:48.340]  And in particular, viruses that cause upper respiratory disease, which SARS-CoV-2 is one
[05:48.340 --> 05:49.980]  such virus.
[05:49.980 --> 05:58.700]  Here's what happens when the virus first hits a community, the people who are most susceptible
[05:58.700 --> 06:03.940]  and susceptible is actually a word that the epidemiology community uses.
[06:03.940 --> 06:07.780]  So when I say susceptible, that's not just a word I'm choosing to use today.
[06:07.780 --> 06:14.260]  That is actually a part of the equation when epidemiologists are looking at infectious
[06:14.260 --> 06:15.260]  diseases.
[06:15.260 --> 06:18.420]  Susceptibility, what part of the society is susceptible?
[06:18.420 --> 06:28.020]  So with that said, the people who are most susceptible are the people with the most compromised
[06:28.340 --> 06:29.820]  immune process.
[06:29.820 --> 06:33.580]  They get hit first and they get hit hardest.
[06:33.580 --> 06:38.500]  There's actually a scientific name for that principle and you can watch, there's a graph.
[06:38.500 --> 06:40.780]  It's called something like the Mossberg graph or something.
[06:40.780 --> 06:43.600]  It's been months since I've looked at it and I've forgotten the name.
[06:43.600 --> 06:49.460]  But what it shows is the people that get hit initially because they have seriously compromised
[06:49.460 --> 06:54.660]  immune process, which does not mean some sort of genetic condition like they're immune compromised.
[06:54.660 --> 06:58.940]  They may have very well done it to themselves through lifestyle and chronic disease.
[06:58.940 --> 07:04.460]  They are most susceptible to it and because their immune process is so compromised, it
[07:04.460 --> 07:05.460]  kills them first.
[07:05.460 --> 07:06.780]  That's just the reality of it.
[07:06.780 --> 07:14.740]  So you see the spike of contagions and deaths and then the deaths begin to fall off.
[07:14.740 --> 07:16.740]  We've seen that in a lot of states.
[07:16.740 --> 07:19.900]  I've shown you time and time and time and time again in states and countries all over
[07:19.900 --> 07:20.900]  the world.
[07:20.900 --> 07:26.980]  The herd immunity pyramid, you've got to have the red line to get to the blue line.
[07:26.980 --> 07:31.920]  When the virus first starts, you've got this group over here that has natural immunity.
[07:31.920 --> 07:34.780]  You've got this group over here which are susceptible.
[07:34.780 --> 07:37.200]  Over time that inverts.
[07:37.200 --> 07:42.740]  The number of people who are immune, whether it's naturally or they've gotten it and now
[07:42.740 --> 07:47.780]  they have antibodies, that pool grows and the susceptible pool closes.
[07:47.780 --> 07:50.580]  That's the whole principle behind herd immunity.
[07:50.580 --> 07:57.660]  Nevertheless, as that susceptible pool closes, there are people that are still susceptible.
[07:57.660 --> 08:02.180]  People who have natural herd immunity are not in the susceptible class.
[08:02.180 --> 08:10.200]  So what happens is you reach herd immunity concerning all the people that were susceptible,
[08:10.200 --> 08:11.700]  for instance, through the summer.
[08:11.700 --> 08:12.700]  We've seen that spike.
[08:12.700 --> 08:15.740]  We've got to have the red line to get to the blue line.
[08:15.740 --> 08:17.100]  Then the weather gets cooler.
[08:17.100 --> 08:23.020]  People go indoors, differing personal behavior changes the infection pattern, and now this
[08:23.020 --> 08:28.180]  ever-shrinking group of susceptible people, now because behavioral patterns have shifted,
[08:28.180 --> 08:29.500]  they start to get hit.
[08:29.500 --> 08:35.060]  Now, they're not as susceptible as the people that got nailed, say, 10 months ago, right?
[08:35.060 --> 08:38.520]  But nevertheless, they're still part of the susceptible pool.
[08:38.520 --> 08:40.700]  So infections start increasing.
[08:40.700 --> 08:45.260]  Now the really important thing, and this goes to the death issue, the people in this ever-dwindling
[08:45.260 --> 08:51.380]  susceptible pool, they're susceptible for various reasons, but they are not—their
[08:51.380 --> 08:57.700]  immune process is nowhere near as compromised on the whole, nowhere near as compromised
[08:57.700 --> 08:59.620]  as the people who got hit at the outset, right?
[08:59.620 --> 09:06.020]  So they get infected, but the vast majority of them never develop the disease known as
[09:06.020 --> 09:07.100]  COVID-19.
[09:07.100 --> 09:12.140]  And if they do develop symptoms of COVID-19—they lose their taste or they get an upset nose
[09:12.220 --> 09:16.820]  or they feel like crap for two or three days—they don't go the extra distance.
[09:16.820 --> 09:18.220]  They don't end up with the breathing problems.
[09:18.220 --> 09:19.220]  They don't have to go to the hospital.
[09:19.220 --> 09:23.980]  And even if they go there, their immune system is still not as trashed as the people at the
[09:23.980 --> 09:27.580]  outset, so not as many of them die.
[09:27.580 --> 09:29.340]  It's just that equation.
[09:29.340 --> 09:35.780]  You start with a small pool of people who are naturally immune, and then through the
[09:35.780 --> 09:40.460]  herd immunity process, as more people get it and they become immune, that grows, and
[09:40.460 --> 09:42.900]  the pool of susceptible people over time shrinks.
[09:42.900 --> 09:46.980]  So these people here are—they're susceptible, but they're less susceptible.
[09:46.980 --> 09:48.620]  Did I describe that clearly?