Detecting language using up to the first 30 seconds. Use `--language` to specify the language Detected language: English [00:00.000 --> 00:08.040] I'm Dave Champion, and this is a tutorial on natural herd immunity. [00:08.040 --> 00:14.280] Concerning which there is a dearth of information on the internet, you can search long and far [00:14.280 --> 00:22.000] for herd immunity and find virtually no information on natural herd immunity. [00:22.000 --> 00:28.400] As an example, I went on YouTube intentionally to see where they were at on this, and I don't [00:28.400 --> 00:35.360] know this for a fact, but it appears YouTube has scrubbed every single video or lowered [00:35.360 --> 00:40.800] it in the rankings so far that you cannot find it that discusses natural herd immunity. [00:40.800 --> 00:45.360] In that context, that there's just this complete dearth of information, I wanted to present [00:45.360 --> 00:51.360] a tutorial discussing the anthropology, the physiology, and so forth of natural herd immunity. [00:51.360 --> 00:56.860] Now, before I get started, I want to acknowledge nothing in this tutorial is going to change [00:57.020 --> 01:03.660] the opinions of hardcore natural herd immunity deniers, because their denial has nothing [01:03.660 --> 01:04.660] to do with science. [01:04.660 --> 01:07.980] It's all sort of like a personal emotional construct thing. [01:07.980 --> 01:12.740] If they were into facts or science, they would know that herd immunity was recognized as [01:12.740 --> 01:19.020] a naturally occurring phenomenon as far back as the 1930s, and it actually got its name [01:19.020 --> 01:20.580] in 1923. [01:27.860 --> 01:32.220] Like many of the scientific issues I've discussed with you over the last five or six months, [01:32.220 --> 01:35.820] there's a lot of complexity to this, and I'm going to do here in this tutorial what I've [01:35.820 --> 01:40.380] done on other subjects in previous videos, and that is I'm going to give you the key [01:40.380 --> 01:45.900] elements that are important for you to understand the issue without getting into all the complex [01:45.900 --> 01:51.180] minutiae which would make this video considerably longer than it's already going to be. [01:51.180 --> 01:57.060] Leaving off the words naturally occurring, what is herd immunity? [01:57.060 --> 02:02.020] For that, I want to reference a fairly decent description that appears on Wikipedia. [02:02.020 --> 02:06.900] Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a [02:06.900 --> 02:11.460] sufficient percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through [02:11.460 --> 02:17.100] vaccination or previous infections, thereby reducing the likelihood or infection for individuals [02:17.100 --> 02:19.220] who lack immunity. [02:19.220 --> 02:24.500] Immune individuals are unlikely to contribute to disease transmission, disrupting chains [02:24.500 --> 02:28.420] of infection which stops or slows the spread of a disease. [02:28.420 --> 02:32.220] The greater the proportion of immune individuals in a community, the smaller the probability [02:32.220 --> 02:38.100] that nonimmune individuals will come into contact with the infectious individual. [02:38.100 --> 02:41.980] As I said, a pretty good, decent definition of herd immunity. [02:41.980 --> 02:47.340] The only thing it leaves out is the component of death as part of the herd immunity equation, [02:47.340 --> 02:50.780] the natural herd immunity equation, and I'm going to get into that in a minute. [02:50.780 --> 02:56.980] From here, I'm going to address naturally occurring herd immunity in three categories. [02:56.980 --> 03:07.740] Anthropology, how herd immunity works, and what we can see with our own eyes today. [03:07.740 --> 03:13.780] Disease anthropology, how communicable diseases affected ancient man. [03:14.020 --> 03:19.420] Sometimes ancient man is depicted like this, sort of a man alone kind of thing, which is [03:19.420 --> 03:22.140] not remotely accurate. [03:22.140 --> 03:26.860] These depictions are far more accurate because man was communal in nature. [03:26.860 --> 03:33.260] The same impulses we have today for a mate, for procreation, for caring for our children, [03:33.260 --> 03:39.040] for wanting to engage in community, those sentiments were with man ever since there [03:39.040 --> 03:40.040] was man. [03:40.040 --> 03:43.800] It's not just here suddenly in the 21st century we have those instincts. [03:43.800 --> 03:46.520] Those have always been man's instincts. [03:46.520 --> 03:52.980] In other words, whether it's from anthropology, archaeology, or common sense, man has always [03:52.980 --> 03:55.560] lived in a communal setting. [03:55.560 --> 04:02.560] You could find man in those communal settings where there was abundant fresh water and abundant [04:02.560 --> 04:03.560] game. [04:03.560 --> 04:09.160] If those two things were there, you can bet whatever humans were in that region were in [04:09.160 --> 04:11.260] a community there. [04:11.260 --> 04:19.740] And of course, man understood from, again, the time that there was man that living communally [04:19.740 --> 04:26.540] with numbers helped defend the community against maybe other communities that were aggressive. [04:26.540 --> 04:31.900] So understanding that since the beginning of time man has always lived communally in [04:31.900 --> 04:38.320] communities, how many incidents do we know of, does science know of, does archaeology [04:38.320 --> 04:44.960] or anthropology know of, where entire populations were wiped out by an infectious disease? [04:44.960 --> 04:48.240] Yeah, so that would be zero. [04:48.240 --> 04:53.780] So if there's zero evidence that entire populations were wiped out by infectious disease, not [04:53.780 --> 05:03.640] even a single incident of that in known history, so absent natural herd immunity, how those [05:03.640 --> 05:05.360] outbreaks have ended? [05:05.360 --> 05:14.060] Historical anthropology has found evidence of smallpox in 3rd century BC Egypt. [05:14.060 --> 05:19.260] And of course, we know that that was roughly the 31st dynasty that then rolled into reconquering [05:19.260 --> 05:23.960] Persia in the era of Alexander Great and on and on and on until today. [05:23.960 --> 05:33.280] So was it like 3rd century BC vaccines that caused the smallpox outbreak to end? [05:33.920 --> 05:38.400] Or perhaps natural herd immunity? [05:38.400 --> 05:44.740] There are three components to how natural herd immunity works. [05:44.740 --> 05:46.820] The first is deaths. [05:46.820 --> 05:49.920] The second is natural immunity. [05:49.920 --> 05:56.860] And the third is to become infected and then recover, thus having antibodies. [05:56.860 --> 06:01.300] When I said deaths is part of natural herd immunity, you might have been surprised because [06:01.520 --> 06:07.920] you can read extensively on herd immunity anywhere and everywhere you want and never [06:07.920 --> 06:14.680] see deaths included in the discussion of herd immunity, but it is nevertheless a factor. [06:14.680 --> 06:18.260] The best way to look at it is the phrase culling the herd. [06:18.260 --> 06:21.700] I'm going to show you a definition of culling the herd. [06:21.700 --> 06:26.340] To separate or kill animals with inferior genetics, to remove those genetics from the [06:26.340 --> 06:31.380] gene pool of a population so that only the animals with desired genetics may live to [06:31.380 --> 06:36.100] procreate the next generation which has a superior gene. [06:36.100 --> 06:43.020] The process over time will make the population have, quote, better traits as a whole. [06:43.020 --> 06:49.480] To separate or kill animals with inferior genetics, animals like man. [06:49.480 --> 06:55.560] So men have been doing this for centuries with things like livestock to create exactly [06:55.640 --> 06:59.840] the kind of thing they wanted to ensure that the herds remain healthy. [06:59.840 --> 07:07.240] However, Mother Nature has always done that with humankind. [07:07.240 --> 07:10.880] Because there's no site that talks about death in terms of herd immunity, I want to give [07:10.880 --> 07:13.020] you an example so you can better understand. [07:13.020 --> 07:17.080] Let's take an illustrative community of just a hundred people. [07:17.080 --> 07:24.320] Now, of course, the concept of herd immunity, phrased one way, is that the virus has less [07:24.480 --> 07:30.600] places to go when the pool of susceptible hosts is smaller. [07:30.600 --> 07:36.480] And of course, when the virus has no more susceptible hosts, it's gone. [07:36.480 --> 07:42.880] In our illustrative community of a hundred people, let's say that 50% are susceptible [07:42.880 --> 07:46.160] to the virus, and we're going to get into natural immunity in a moment, so just run [07:46.160 --> 07:47.160] with me on this. [07:47.160 --> 07:50.360] Fifty percent are susceptible to the virus. [07:50.360 --> 07:53.760] Obviously, 50% of a hundred is 50 people. [07:53.760 --> 07:59.600] So if in the first couple of months of the infectious outbreak, the virus or what have [07:59.600 --> 08:08.600] you, kills 10% of that 50 people who are susceptible, now instead of having 50 susceptible people, [08:08.600 --> 08:12.080] you have 45 susceptible people, right? [08:12.080 --> 08:17.480] Again, the fewer susceptible people you have, that means the fewer available hosts for the [08:17.480 --> 08:23.480] virus and the closer you are to eradicating it. [08:23.480 --> 08:25.320] What is this thing? [08:25.320 --> 08:26.320] Natural immunity. [08:26.320 --> 08:31.120] Well, natural immunity means for whatever physiological reason, there are various ones, [08:31.120 --> 08:37.720] a particular contagion does not impact the people who have natural immunity and the level [08:37.720 --> 08:39.040] of exposure is irrelevant. [08:39.040 --> 08:42.920] They can be exposed to it constantly and they just don't get it. [08:42.920 --> 08:47.200] Or the second part of natural immunity, the virus does get inside them, but their body [08:47.200 --> 08:52.360] defeats it so rapidly they are asymptomatic, they never have a single symptom, they have [08:52.360 --> 08:54.720] a low viral load and they're not contagious. [08:54.720 --> 08:59.960] So whether we're talking about never gets it or gets it and their body immediately defeats [08:59.960 --> 09:03.040] it, either one of those is considered natural immunity. [09:03.040 --> 09:08.360] Even with something as virulent as smallpox, there were a lot of people, a huge percentage [09:08.360 --> 09:13.240] of the population that just never got small, as horrible as smallpox was, there was still [09:13.240 --> 09:17.520] this large population that had natural immunity to it. [09:17.520 --> 09:22.320] Then we have people who are minimally symptomatic, a term you've probably heard used in the [09:22.480 --> 09:25.080] whole SARS-CoV-2 episode. [09:25.080 --> 09:31.560] An example of that would be, again, I'm going to use smallpox, George Washington in 1751 [09:31.560 --> 09:38.040] when he was traveling in Barbados got smallpox and he was minimally symptomatic. [09:38.040 --> 09:40.560] It caused a couple scars on his nose. [09:40.560 --> 09:45.600] That was it. [09:45.600 --> 09:52.280] The third operative element of naturally occurring herd immunity is people who have been infected [09:52.440 --> 09:55.560] and recovered and have the antibodies. [09:55.560 --> 10:01.160] Now, is there anybody here today in 2020, especially with the last several months of [10:01.160 --> 10:04.840] SARS-CoV-2 and so much in the news and if you've been watching my videos, is there [10:04.840 --> 10:10.880] anybody who doesn't understand that when you recover from a contagion like this, you have [10:10.880 --> 10:17.080] antibodies, which prevent you from getting it and hence prevent you from giving it. [10:17.080 --> 10:20.680] So I'm not going to waste your time covering that very elementary ground today. [10:20.680 --> 10:25.240] However, I will put links to one or more videos down in the notes to videos I've done [10:25.240 --> 10:30.480] on antibody responses generally and antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2. [10:30.480 --> 10:36.960] So to recap, we've discussed the three elements that operate as part of natural herd immunity. [10:36.960 --> 10:43.720] Deaths, natural immunity, and having gotten the infection recovered and having antibodies. [10:43.720 --> 10:49.440] Those three operate together as part of natural herd immunity. [10:49.440 --> 10:57.080] The upshot of those three elements comprising natural herd immunity is that when the herd [10:57.080 --> 11:02.760] immunity threshold in a population has been reached, it does what epidemiologists refer [11:02.760 --> 11:06.520] to as break the transmission chain. [11:06.520 --> 11:13.240] In other words, to put it simplistically, the virus has nowhere left to go and so the [11:13.240 --> 11:19.200] virus does not survive or at least it ceases to be a threat to that particular population base. [11:19.200 --> 11:25.440] As I said earlier, the position held by natural herd immunity deniers is not based on factor [11:25.440 --> 11:30.840] science but they'll often throw stuff out to try and prove that natural herd immunity [11:30.840 --> 11:32.160] doesn't exist. [11:32.160 --> 11:39.080] So the things that I've heard them throw out are smallpox, HIV, Ebola. [11:39.080 --> 11:41.200] So let's talk about smallpox first. [11:41.200 --> 11:47.700] We've already discussed that although there were no epidemiologists or biostatisticians [11:48.020 --> 11:52.460] or communicable disease experts hanging around in a place like the example I gave you, 3rd [11:52.460 --> 11:59.460] century BC Egypt, we know that natural herd immunity eradicated it because it was eradicated. [11:59.460 --> 12:04.980] Now, it wasn't fully eradicated and it has popped up around the world numerous times [12:04.980 --> 12:11.460] since then and with some horrible consequences but we know that Egyptian society carried [12:11.460 --> 12:16.500] on after they had the smallpox outbreak so something stopped it. [12:16.500 --> 12:22.380] In those days again, 3rd century BC, it was either natural herd immunity or I guess maybe [12:22.380 --> 12:28.700] in the minds of the deniers it was, I don't know, magic, HIV and Ebola. [12:28.700 --> 12:30.940] I'm going to handle those together. [12:30.940 --> 12:34.580] First of all, so if you hear somebody offer those as evidence that natural herd immunity [12:34.580 --> 12:41.060] isn't really a thing, you know you're talking to somebody who is at best ill-informed and [12:41.780 --> 12:48.780] not very bright because both HIV and Ebola are spread by rather intimate contact with [12:50.500 --> 12:53.220] internal body fluids. [12:53.220 --> 12:59.700] So it's not that they're evidence that natural herd immunity isn't a thing, it's that the [12:59.700 --> 13:06.700] whole idea of natural herd immunity is inapplicable to viruses that spread only by relatively [13:07.420 --> 13:12.460] intimate contact involving internal bodily fluids and there is no medical professional [13:12.460 --> 13:18.980] ever since you go back to the early 1930s, late 1920s, where scientists observed the [13:18.980 --> 13:22.540] herd immunity phenomenon and said wait, this is a real natural thing, this is actually [13:22.540 --> 13:24.060] a thing. [13:24.060 --> 13:28.900] From that day until right now as I'm speaking to you now, there is not a single medical [13:28.900 --> 13:35.900] professional who has ever even remotely suggested that a herd immunity applies to viruses. [13:36.700 --> 13:43.700] So again, it's not that they're evidence that natural herd immunity isn't a thing, [13:44.540 --> 13:46.300] it's evidence that they're not too bright. [13:46.300 --> 13:51.660] When we're talking about natural herd immunity or herd immunity by vaccine, it doesn't matter. [13:51.660 --> 13:58.660] What is the magic number, that percentage at which we have achieved herd immunity? [13:58.660 --> 14:05.660] I don't know, and neither do you, and neither do epidemiologists, neither do MDs, neither [14:05.940 --> 14:11.820] do infectious disease experts, and here's why. Until you have lived with a virus and [14:11.820 --> 14:17.620] watched its pattern and seen herd immunity develop in a given community, you don't know [14:17.620 --> 14:22.580] what the percentage is because the percentage of the population that needs to be infected [14:22.580 --> 14:29.580] for any particular virus is specific to that virus. So you might have a virus that needs [14:29.580 --> 14:33.580] 90%, for instance, that's the number often thrown around concerning measles, and then [14:33.580 --> 14:36.980] there have been researchers, I know people are going to scream and say, it's not credible, [14:36.980 --> 14:41.260] I'm just sharing with you what some researchers have said. There are some researchers who [14:41.260 --> 14:48.260] say that an infection rate in a particular community of as low as 25% could create herd [14:48.780 --> 14:53.460] immunity concerning SARS-CoV-2. I'm not saying those people are right. What I'm saying is, [14:53.460 --> 14:58.220] and this is the scientific fact, what I was just sharing was that the percentage of people [14:58.220 --> 15:02.860] who said that, what I was just sharing was just some researchers' opinion, this is scientific [15:02.860 --> 15:09.260] fact and that is, I don't know for SARS-CoV-2 what that threshold is and no one else on [15:09.260 --> 15:14.220] the planet knows, including the people who will tell you, we can't get to natural herd [15:14.220 --> 15:18.300] immunity because you have to have this particular percentage. When you hear somebody say that, [15:18.300 --> 15:23.420] you know you're talking to a bonehead. If there had to be a viral outbreak and you could [15:23.420 --> 15:30.420] write the formula for that virus that would make it the poster child for reaching natural [15:30.420 --> 15:34.580] herd immunity, how would you structure that virus? I'm going to go ahead and tell you. [15:34.580 --> 15:41.580] You would make it highly infectious and highly asymptomatic, which brings the death toll [15:41.580 --> 15:48.980] down, and we'll talk about that in a minute. Coincidentally, SARS-CoV-2 is highly infectious [15:49.140 --> 15:55.340] and highly asymptomatic, making it the poster child for natural herd immunity. If we want [15:55.340 --> 15:59.940] to take a gander at our current situation with SARS-CoV-2, right now as things stand [15:59.940 --> 16:05.300] in this country, if we look at the number of people who have died within the entire [16:05.300 --> 16:12.300] population, not just the much smaller infected group, but we take the entire 322 million [16:13.340 --> 16:17.780] people who live in the United States and then we find the percentage of people who have [16:17.980 --> 16:24.980] died from COVID-19 within that population base. Right now we are at 0.05% or 5 one hundredth [16:28.820 --> 16:35.100] of one percent. But if you desire to look at the death toll from COVID-19 within the [16:35.100 --> 16:41.820] construct of how many people have been infected, you have to do a lot of speculation there [16:41.820 --> 16:45.540] because of course we don't know how many people are infected. When we look at government numbers, [16:45.540 --> 16:48.860] that's just test results. That doesn't tell us how many people have never been tested [16:48.860 --> 16:53.100] and have at some point had the virus or have it now. Those numbers don't tell us that. [16:53.100 --> 16:59.540] So as I'm sitting here talking to you today, the number of confirmed cases from, I'd like [16:59.540 --> 17:04.260] to say PCR testing, but I'm sure there's some just by signs and symptoms type observation [17:04.260 --> 17:10.580] by doctors, but the number that's out there is 7 million people in the United States have [17:10.580 --> 17:15.460] been confirmed to have the virus. So we're going to run with that number. Now, we don't [17:15.460 --> 17:18.020] know how many people are really infected, right? Because that's just a government testing [17:18.020 --> 17:23.660] number or a government diagnostic number. So if we were to multiply 7 million times [17:23.660 --> 17:30.660] a factor of 25, which I think is pretty conservative, that would mean the United States is already [17:31.500 --> 17:38.500] at 43% infection rate. So if we accept that, that 43% as the infection pool, that would [17:39.500 --> 17:46.500] make the mortality rate 0.1% or one-tenth of 1% of the entire population that is thought [17:50.500 --> 17:57.500] to be infected or at some point was. If we take that 7 million number and use a factor [17:57.500 --> 18:04.500] of 35, which I think is a bit more realistic, we end up with 76% of the United States population [18:05.500 --> 18:12.500] having been or being infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. That a natural herd immunity number? [18:13.500 --> 18:18.500] Again, going back to what we discussed earlier, we don't know, but it should be hard to argue [18:18.500 --> 18:24.500] against that if we accept the factor of 35. Now, if we do accept the factor of 35, which [18:24.500 --> 18:30.500] would mean 76% of the US population has at some point had the SARS-CoV-2 virus inside [18:31.500 --> 18:38.500] them, that would make the mortality rate from the infection pool 0.07% or seven-one-hundredths [18:41.660 --> 18:48.100] of 1%. So why did I just run through that exercise? Well, here's why. Whether it's [18:48.100 --> 18:54.940] 43% of the US population or 67% of the US population, those are the numbers, depending [18:54.940 --> 18:58.420] on which model you like or you make up your own model, those are the numbers of people [18:58.420 --> 19:02.480] who've been infected. Whatever number you want to choose, whether we're talking about [19:02.480 --> 19:07.300] somewhere in the range of 150 million people infected or we're talking about 240 million [19:07.300 --> 19:10.740] people infected, whatever that number is, then you take the number of Americans that [19:10.740 --> 19:17.060] have died from that. The remaining number, so whatever number you use, is the total infection [19:17.060 --> 19:24.060] pool. You subtract the number of people in the US who've died. What remains the remainder, [19:25.060 --> 19:30.820] they have antibodies. They're not infectious. They can't get it. They can't give it. So [19:30.820 --> 19:37.820] you can run those numbers and determine for yourself, is that natural herd immunity levels? [19:39.900 --> 19:43.380] If you've been following me for any length of time, you know I'm a big fan of graphs [19:43.380 --> 19:48.820] and charts. So what we can see with our own eyes, we can either look at anecdotes, which [19:48.820 --> 19:54.220] I don't think are meaningful, or we can look at graphs or charts that display data, which [19:54.220 --> 20:01.220] I do think is meaningful. If we want to examine what we can actually see with our own eyes [20:01.360 --> 20:07.580] concerning natural herd immunity, let's look at a couple graphs. This is Arizona, and this [20:07.580 --> 20:14.540] pyramid you're looking at is what I have long referred to as the herd immunity pyramid. [20:14.540 --> 20:20.420] You have to have the red line to get to the blue line. And clearly, Arizona is in herd [20:20.420 --> 20:24.020] immunity. And I think the important thing about Arizona being in herd immunity, at least [20:24.020 --> 20:30.420] as far as the natural herd immunity deniers are concerned, is Arizona did not have a statewide [20:30.420 --> 20:34.540] mask order. There was no enforcement of social distancing. I mean, nobody called the cops. [20:34.540 --> 20:38.780] The cops didn't come out and cite you or arrest you if you were standing four feet from somebody [20:39.620 --> 20:46.060] And of course, no vaccine. This next graph is of Texas. And again, you see the herd immunity [20:46.060 --> 20:51.780] pyramid. And Texas, again, had no statewide mask order. There was no enforcement of social [20:51.780 --> 20:58.020] distancing and no vaccine, of course. Here we have Florida, again, the herd immunity [20:58.020 --> 21:02.900] pyramid. You got to have the red line to get to the blue line. And just like the previous [21:03.500 --> 21:09.540] no statewide mask order, no enforcement of social distancing and no vaccine. I do want [21:09.540 --> 21:15.620] to make one point over here. You see this right here? Okay, so this is what I have dubbed [21:15.620 --> 21:22.420] the anomalous spike that has occurred in countries and states of the union time and again. And [21:22.420 --> 21:30.740] every time the media sees like the one day or two day spike, they say, oh my God, that's [21:30.740 --> 21:35.940] a hot spot. No, it's an anomalous spike. So media shut up if you don't know what you're [21:35.940 --> 21:41.660] talking about. Here we have the nation of Brazil. And again, the herd immunity pyramid, [21:41.660 --> 21:47.580] you've got to have the red line to get to the blue line. There was no nationwide mask [21:47.580 --> 21:53.560] order. There was no like, since it's a foreign country, there was no like police enforcement [21:53.560 --> 21:57.620] of social distancing. I bring up social distancing enforcement by police because in some nations [21:57.620 --> 22:03.100] in Europe, that's how they did it. And of course, there's no vaccine. So this herd [22:03.100 --> 22:08.540] immunity pyramid you see in Brazil was not the result of a non existent vaccine. And [22:08.540 --> 22:14.820] here we have Sweden, the very first jurisdiction on the planet to hit herd immunity. And here [22:14.820 --> 22:19.940] you see the traditional herd immunity pyramid. Now, I want to point something out here. Oh, [22:19.940 --> 22:24.260] by the way, yeah, they had no mask orders and they had no social distancing enforcement [22:24.460 --> 22:28.740] and no vaccine. My friends that live there tell me some people social distance and some [22:28.740 --> 22:34.140] people didn't. So there you go. I want to draw your attention to this smaller herd immunity [22:34.140 --> 22:38.260] pyramid right here. I discussed this about two or three weeks in another video. And at [22:38.260 --> 22:44.500] that time, I predicted that we would see a yet smaller, a tiny herd immunity pyramid [22:44.500 --> 22:52.400] following the smaller one. And there we have it. And I explained at that time, that's because [22:52.400 --> 22:59.720] that is how natural herd immunity works. You have these little bounces as it's moving [22:59.720 --> 23:08.160] towards zero. So natural herd immunity deniers. What the Dickens is happening in those states [23:08.160 --> 23:14.880] and countries that their cases spiked up and then spiked down and they're pretty close [23:14.880 --> 23:21.040] to zero now. Insert kooky non-scientific response here. So we've looked at some states of the [23:21.040 --> 23:31.200] union. Where is the United States as a nation? Well, looky here. As a nation, we are already [23:31.200 --> 23:35.040] in herd immunity because there you have the traditional you got to have the red line to [23:35.040 --> 23:38.840] get to the blue line herd immunity pyramid. Now, you'll see this little thing where search [23:38.840 --> 23:42.520] to arc up again over here. Guess what that is? Yeah, the same thing as Sweden. It's just [23:42.520 --> 23:46.760] a little bump and it'll it'll be a smaller, a far smaller pyramid than the one you're [23:46.760 --> 23:52.240] looking at here. You may be wondering why the blue line is a bit more shallow than places [23:52.240 --> 23:56.880] like Sweden. That's because America is a big nation. We've got a lot of rural states and [23:56.880 --> 24:02.240] so as soon as the rural states catch up, because they were late to the infection party, then [24:02.240 --> 24:11.560] we'll see this drop down to virtually zero. With all this said, can anybody prove natural [24:11.560 --> 24:18.840] herd immunity? Which is the argument made by the natural herd immunity deniers. Well, no, [24:18.840 --> 24:25.200] you can't because you can observe it. You can measure it. You can look at the type of data [24:25.200 --> 24:31.280] we've just looked at and common sense tells you what's going on. But you can't replicate it in a [24:31.280 --> 24:38.680] laboratory, which in scientific terms is the the hardcore standard for proof. Let me give you an [24:38.680 --> 24:45.680] analogy that explains how these hardcore natural herd immunity deniers try and wiggle out of all [24:45.680 --> 24:51.200] the facts and data we've discussed here today. Let's use a murder investigation to highlight [24:51.200 --> 24:57.880] what I'm talking about. So let's say there's a guy and he has an apartment and his name is Franklin [24:57.880 --> 25:03.960] and the cops get a call from Franklin's housekeeper who says, I have a key to Franklin's house. I went [25:03.960 --> 25:07.600] in there to clean the house today. He was supposed to be at the office and I found him dead in the [25:07.600 --> 25:11.720] hallway. Can you please come over here? So the cops show up and they find him dead in the hallway. [25:11.720 --> 25:16.960] He's got two bullet holes in his chest. And the forensics team comes in and as they're gathering [25:16.960 --> 25:21.640] evidence, they discover that Franklin has placed high definition cameras throughout the apartment [25:21.640 --> 25:27.000] and they all go back to a central recording device. So the cops pull the recordings and they look at [25:27.000 --> 25:32.440] the video recordings. So what they see is that Franklin's at home and then he goes to the front [25:32.440 --> 25:38.280] door and somebody's there. So this stranger comes in and he and Franklin begin to get, and was clearly [25:38.280 --> 25:44.560] obvious from the video, some sort of an altercation, some sort of an argument. And Franklin at one point [25:44.560 --> 25:50.720] turns away and walks towards the hallway, the hallway being the only place in the entire residence [25:50.720 --> 25:57.280] that does not have a camera. So then we see the unknown individual follow Franklin towards the [25:57.280 --> 26:04.400] hallway. Just as the stranger is about to go out of camera frame, we see him reach down, raise his shirt [26:04.400 --> 26:10.880] and stick his hand down in this region. And then he disappears into the hallway. Then within seconds, [26:10.880 --> 26:18.240] within one and a half to two and a half seconds, we hear bang, bang. And then we see the stranger [26:18.240 --> 26:22.800] come out and the cameras catch him. He's got a gun in his hand and you might not know the model, [26:22.960 --> 26:29.200] but certainly clearly you can identify the make. So he runs out, he runs down the hallway towards [26:29.200 --> 26:33.680] the elevator and a couple of neighbors open the door and peek out because they heard the sound. [26:33.680 --> 26:36.640] And so when the police come and conduct their investigation, they go and they door knock as [26:36.640 --> 26:40.320] they do. And one of the neighbors, they're trying to find out who that stranger was. One of the [26:40.320 --> 26:44.560] neighbors says, yeah, I know, I was introduced to him a while back. That's Eric, Franklin's business [26:44.560 --> 26:51.280] partner. Boom, right? Okay. So the cops get a warrant for Eric's place. They serve the warrant. [26:51.280 --> 26:56.160] Eric has no place to be found, but they recover a firearm. And so they run a ballistics check and [26:56.160 --> 27:03.440] they find out, yes, this firearm is the firearm that put the two rounds in Franklin. So we've [27:03.440 --> 27:10.160] got this video evidence. We've got the stranger coming into Franklin's apartment, a heated argument [27:10.160 --> 27:14.480] taking place. Franklin walking away into the only area that doesn't have a camera. The stranger [27:14.480 --> 27:19.760] following him in, reaching in a way that appears it could be reaching for a weapon. And just seconds [27:19.760 --> 27:25.280] later, bang, bang. You can't see what's happening, but you hear the gunshots. And then the stranger [27:25.280 --> 27:29.360] who we now know as Eric runs out. You see him on camera running across the living room. He's got [27:29.360 --> 27:34.640] the gun in his hand. He bursts out the front door. Neighbors see him, identify him as Eric. [27:34.640 --> 27:39.200] And when they serve the warrant, they come up with a gun and ballistics show that that gun fired the [27:39.200 --> 27:44.800] rounds that killed Franklin. Okay. Now it doesn't matter where you are on the planet. [27:45.280 --> 27:53.840] Eric is getting convicted of murder. Except in the minds, if we compare this analogy to natural [27:53.840 --> 28:01.600] herd immunity, except in the minds of natural herd immunity deniers who would say, we can't say he's [28:01.600 --> 28:09.760] guilty because we didn't see what happened in the hallway. Okay. So that's the, given all the [28:10.720 --> 28:18.080] science, all the evidence, all the anthropology, all the medical reality, the original observations [28:18.080 --> 28:23.280] back in the late 20s and early 30s, this is a naturally occurring phenomenon. All of that, [28:23.280 --> 28:29.840] notwithstanding, they will say, you can't prove it, so it's not real. Okay. So yeah. And you didn't [28:29.840 --> 28:34.960] know that Eric shot Franklin in the hallway. As I said at the outset, this isn't going to change [28:34.960 --> 28:41.920] the mind of any hardcore natural herd immunity deniers. This tutorial, the reason to lay this [28:41.920 --> 28:47.760] all out is because there are people who are, with the best of intentions, they're misinformed, [28:47.760 --> 28:53.840] probably misinformed by the hardcore natural herd immunity deniers. Unlike the hardcore [28:53.840 --> 28:59.200] natural herd immunity deniers, these people can be reached. So the purpose of this tutorial [28:59.200 --> 29:08.480] was to help you reach those people.