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[00:00.000 --> 00:02.320]  I'm Dave Champion.
[00:02.320 --> 00:10.920]  SARS-CoV-2 new daily infection numbers across the United States are literally collapsing.
[00:10.920 --> 00:13.040]  You're not hearing that from the media.
[00:13.040 --> 00:17.360]  Several weeks ago, I did a kind of a tongue-in-cheek video, which I talked about the fact that
[00:17.360 --> 00:22.840]  taking the government media's numbers and then taking some research data and doing the
[00:22.840 --> 00:29.820]  math that the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak would be over by February 19th.
[00:29.820 --> 00:45.300]  It turns out that depending on one's definition of the epidemic being over, I wasn't wrong.
[00:45.300 --> 00:52.380]  From January 8th to January 25th, new daily infections of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States
[00:52.380 --> 01:00.620]  as one national number dropped 57%.
[01:00.620 --> 01:04.720]  I haven't seen that number anywhere in the media.
[01:04.720 --> 01:09.600]  Now I want to talk about some states that at some point or other over the last 13 months
[01:09.600 --> 01:15.400]  were considered hot spots and oftentimes were condemned by the media for the way they had
[01:15.400 --> 01:17.360]  handled the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.
[01:18.120 --> 01:22.620]  I said a moment ago that the numbers are collapsing and you'll see that for yourself.
[01:22.620 --> 01:27.120]  As I list these states, I'm going to give you the beginning date where the numbers started
[01:27.120 --> 01:28.520]  to tank.
[01:28.520 --> 01:34.480]  Every single state, the final number is January 24th or 25th, depending on the available data.
[01:34.480 --> 01:41.320]  South Dakota, the decrease began November 14th and since then, the state of South Dakota
[01:41.320 --> 01:49.280]  has experienced a 98% reduction in new daily infections.
[01:49.280 --> 01:56.520]  Michigan, their beginning date of the decrease was December 4th, 67% decrease.
[01:56.520 --> 02:02.200]  Tennessee, December 20th, 86% decrease.
[02:02.200 --> 02:06.760]  New Jersey, January 7th, 45% decrease.
[02:06.760 --> 02:11.920]  California, January 12th, 41% decrease.
[02:11.920 --> 02:17.440]  Texas, January 15th, 68% decrease.
[02:17.440 --> 02:22.800]  Massachusetts, January 13th, 38% decrease.
[02:22.800 --> 02:28.040]  Florida, January 7th, 56% decrease.
[02:28.040 --> 02:32.680]  New York, January 8th, 39% decrease.
[02:32.680 --> 02:38.080]  New Mexico, November 20th, 84% decrease.
[02:38.080 --> 02:43.480]  And Arizona, January 8th, 64% decrease.
[02:43.480 --> 02:46.720]  As I was reading down that list, you may have taken note of the fact that New York, New
[02:46.720 --> 02:53.080]  Jersey, Massachusetts, and California have the smallest percentage of decrease.
[02:53.080 --> 02:54.080]  Why is that?
[02:54.080 --> 02:57.680]  Well, number one, they've done every single thing within their power to ensure that their
[02:57.680 --> 03:02.000]  populations do not reach comprehensive natural herd immunity.
[03:02.000 --> 03:05.760]  Not only are these states now trailing all the other states as far as performance in
[03:05.760 --> 03:13.560]  coming out of this epidemic, they've also done the most damage to their own economy.
[03:13.560 --> 03:18.720]  And three out of the four, New Jersey, New York, and Massachusetts have the unenviable
[03:18.720 --> 03:27.880]  honor of having the highest death rate per 100,000 of any state in the union.
[03:27.880 --> 03:29.640]  So they're trailing everybody else.
[03:29.640 --> 03:35.480]  They have the worst death rate per 100,000 and they completely destroyed their state's
[03:35.480 --> 03:36.480]  economy.
[03:36.480 --> 03:41.360]  So if New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, and California are doing the worst, who's
[03:41.360 --> 03:42.360]  doing the best?
[03:42.360 --> 03:47.600]  Okay, so the top of the list is South Dakota with a 98% reduction and of course that's
[03:47.600 --> 03:51.640]  Governor Kristi Noem who has been a shining light throughout this.
[03:51.640 --> 03:54.240]  Second place is Tennessee with an 86% reduction.
[03:54.240 --> 03:57.000]  I have a couple friends who live there and I've been touching base with them throughout
[03:57.400 --> 04:02.000]  And they're telling me, yeah, the whole thing is very laissez-faire, very relaxed there.
[04:02.000 --> 04:05.760]  They're not all stressed out and being crazy like they are in places like New Jersey, New
[04:05.760 --> 04:08.120]  York, California, and Massachusetts.
[04:08.120 --> 04:11.740]  One of the odd phenomenons I can't really understand is when I've talked about places
[04:11.740 --> 04:16.560]  like South Dakota in the past, there's people like, oh no, it's a terrible story.
[04:16.560 --> 04:20.120]  They absolutely did the worst possible thing.
[04:20.120 --> 04:25.240]  But those people don't live in South Dakota or Tennessee or whatever state it is I'm talking
[04:25.240 --> 04:26.440]  about.
[04:26.440 --> 04:27.540]  They live somewhere else.
[04:27.540 --> 04:32.120]  When you talk to the people who live in a state like South Dakota and you say, so what's
[04:32.120 --> 04:33.120]  going on in South Dakota?
[04:33.120 --> 04:36.320]  They're like, hey man, we're totally happy with how things went here, man.
[04:36.320 --> 04:37.720]  We're good.
[04:37.720 --> 04:41.520]  Whenever I talk about these kind of numbers collapsing, there's people who always want
[04:41.520 --> 04:42.520]  to make it political.
[04:42.520 --> 04:46.280]  They want to say things like, I told you when Donald Trump was president the numbers would
[04:46.280 --> 04:47.280]  be high.
[04:47.280 --> 04:49.600]  As soon as Joe Biden became president the numbers would drop.
[04:49.600 --> 04:57.840]  OK, so first of all, man, as in mankind, cannot control when natural comprehensive
[04:57.840 --> 05:02.400]  herd immunity is achieved, which is really what we're talking about here.
[05:02.400 --> 05:07.220]  So there's no connection between something we can't control and who's sitting in the
[05:07.220 --> 05:08.220]  Oval Office.
[05:08.220 --> 05:11.440]  And if you've been following me for any length of time, you've heard me say, I don't know,
[05:11.440 --> 05:16.920]  for what, probably eight or nine months now, government cannot slow or stop the spread
[05:16.920 --> 05:17.920]  of a virus.
[05:17.920 --> 05:20.280]  That has nothing to do with who's sitting in the Oval Office.
[05:20.280 --> 05:22.960]  Again, along the lines of making it political.
[05:22.960 --> 05:26.360]  The other thing a lot of people are saying with no basis in reality is, well, now that
[05:26.360 --> 05:31.440]  Joe Biden is president, those labs are cranking down those amplification cycles.
[05:31.440 --> 05:33.360]  So we're not picking up as many cases.
[05:33.360 --> 05:39.720]  OK, so I don't want to say yes or no because I'm not in contact with all those labs.
[05:39.720 --> 05:41.920]  I will just say it this way.
[05:41.920 --> 05:49.560]  There is zero evidence that any lab in the United States has lowered its amplification
[05:49.560 --> 05:52.120]  cycles since Joe Biden took office.
[05:52.120 --> 05:55.760]  And if you're going to make a claim like that, I don't know, call me crazy, perhaps you should
[05:55.760 --> 05:57.400]  have some evidence.
[05:57.400 --> 06:05.320]  So with the United States having hit natural, non-vaccine driven, comprehensive herd immunity
[06:06.320 --> 06:12.480]  collapsing, as you just heard, what are we hearing from the media?
[06:12.480 --> 06:16.080]  This deadly strain, this deadly strain, this deadly strain, this deadly strain.
[06:16.080 --> 06:17.080]  Yeah.
[06:17.080 --> 06:19.040]  So it's still all SARS-CoV-2.
[06:19.040 --> 06:22.720]  This is just the media and the government trying to keep you panicked.
[06:22.720 --> 06:28.840]  So when you see all this stuff about the latest deadly strain, just ignore these assholes.
[06:28.840 --> 06:30.440]  And how many masks are we up to now?
[06:30.880 --> 06:36.440]  Are we supposed to be wearing two or three masks now that new daily infections are collapsing
[06:36.440 --> 06:38.120]  and we're at herd immunity?
[06:38.120 --> 06:39.760]  I can't keep up.
[06:39.760 --> 06:42.800]  At the outset of this video, I referenced a video from several weeks ago where I said
[06:42.800 --> 06:46.000]  the whole thing was going to be over on February 19th.
[06:46.000 --> 06:50.920]  OK, so leaving aside the February 19th date, which was a little bit tongue in cheek, that
[06:50.920 --> 06:54.600]  specificity is not possible, obviously.
[06:54.600 --> 06:57.440]  When is it over?
[06:57.680 --> 07:02.960]  OK, so if you are a communicable disease expert, if you're a biostatistician and you're talking
[07:02.960 --> 07:10.600]  to your fellows in your community, your peers, an epidemic or a pandemic is over when you've
[07:10.600 --> 07:15.200]  had a particular period of time, measured in weeks, by the way, in which you cannot
[07:15.200 --> 07:18.200]  find any further identified cases.
[07:18.200 --> 07:22.440]  And how long that period of time is varies on the incubation period of the particular
[07:22.440 --> 07:24.920]  case, the contagion you're speaking of.
[07:25.000 --> 07:29.720]  However, the important thing I want to say when we talk about no more identified cases
[07:29.720 --> 07:35.320]  is that it's a professional dialogue they're having within the industry and it has very
[07:35.320 --> 07:38.120]  little to do with you and I out in society.
[07:38.120 --> 07:45.120]  So how should we, in the society, on a practical level, not their technical level, on a practical
[07:45.120 --> 07:49.720]  level, how should we view when this is over?
[07:49.720 --> 07:54.880]  My personal equation for this is a two-point system.
[07:54.880 --> 08:06.120]  The first point being that we should be experiencing a 30% reduction in new daily infections nationwide
[08:06.120 --> 08:09.600]  for at least 30 days.
[08:09.600 --> 08:14.760]  So based on the numbers that I gave you thus far, we have, as I'm sitting here talking
[08:14.760 --> 08:19.680]  to you, about a week left to go to hit that 30-day mark.
[08:19.680 --> 08:29.800]  So when we hit 30 days with a 30% or greater decline in new daily infections, that fulfills
[08:29.800 --> 08:31.840]  point one of my formula.
[08:31.840 --> 08:36.720]  When we're talking about a 30% or greater reduction, I do want to draw your attention
[08:36.720 --> 08:42.520]  to a scam that the media constantly pulls so you don't get scammed by them when we're
[08:42.520 --> 08:45.100]  looking at this 30% or greater decline.
[08:45.100 --> 08:49.640]  If you look at this chart here, which I ignore the blue and red lines, this is taken from
[08:49.640 --> 08:56.360]  a graph that I used many months ago, but you'll notice as the numbers go up, and then
[08:56.360 --> 09:00.880]  as the numbers go down, there are a lot of peaks and valleys.
[09:00.880 --> 09:06.480]  So what I want to point out, the scam that the media always pulls, is they would say
[09:06.480 --> 09:13.240]  this is an increase in new daily infections, and this is an increase in new daily infections,
[09:13.240 --> 09:19.680]  and that is an increase in new daily infections, without looking at the totality and being
[09:19.680 --> 09:25.840]  honest with you and saying, as we have peaks and valleys, yeah, the numbers are plummeting.
[09:25.840 --> 09:34.280]  Point two of my personal formula for when you consider this over is at what point as
[09:34.280 --> 09:39.160]  we're going down, new daily infections going down, down, down, down.
[09:40.080 --> 09:44.640]  If they're going down, that means we're still getting new daily infections, but the number
[09:44.640 --> 09:47.000]  is constantly decreasing.
[09:47.000 --> 09:53.440]  So if we want to wait till zero, which is what epidemiologists and biostatisticians
[09:53.440 --> 09:59.720]  and communicable disease experts are looking for, we've got a long wait.
[09:59.720 --> 10:04.400]  However, I don't believe that's practical, and I'm going to explain why in a minute.
[10:04.400 --> 10:08.520]  So my point two is, and I'm dealing nationwide, not state here.
[10:08.880 --> 10:12.000]  Poppy can fix a number for each state, but we'd be here a very long time if I ran it
[10:12.000 --> 10:13.000]  through 50 states.
[10:13.000 --> 10:18.600]  So I'm just going to look at one, the totality of the nation, and that is if we get down,
[10:18.600 --> 10:22.640]  if we drop, drop, drop, drop, drop, drop, drop, drop, new daily infections to the point
[10:22.640 --> 10:31.920]  where via testing we are identifying less than 50,000 new daily infections a day, coupled
[10:31.920 --> 10:38.440]  with point one, which is a 30% or greater constant reduction, constant means ignoring
[10:39.360 --> 10:40.360]  this and looking at that.
[10:40.360 --> 10:41.360]  Right.
[10:41.360 --> 10:42.360]  Okay.
[10:42.360 --> 10:46.520]  So if point number one is valid, we've got 30% or greater constant reduction going down
[10:46.520 --> 10:53.840]  for 30 days or more, and then we have less than 50,000 new daily infections identified
[10:53.840 --> 10:56.760]  each day across the nation.
[10:56.760 --> 11:01.560]  Dave Champion's formula, in my estimate, it's over.
[11:01.560 --> 11:02.560]  There's an old expression.
[11:02.560 --> 11:06.000]  It's all over but the Shetland, and that's exactly how I would see it when point one
[11:06.000 --> 11:08.760]  and point two are both true.
[11:08.760 --> 11:12.560]  Some people may be scratching their head and saying, wait, I don't understand the less
[11:12.560 --> 11:17.080]  than 50,000 new daily infections identified by testing number.
[11:17.080 --> 11:18.080]  Okay.
[11:18.080 --> 11:20.920]  So first of all, I want to be very clear that that's a personal number.
[11:20.920 --> 11:22.640]  That's part of my equation.
[11:22.640 --> 11:24.280]  You might choose 70,000.
[11:24.280 --> 11:26.360]  You might choose, I don't know, 20,000.
[11:26.360 --> 11:27.980]  It doesn't matter.
[11:27.980 --> 11:35.480]  The point is if we want to set a number other than zero, then we have to look at the totality.
[11:35.480 --> 11:41.920]  And I think 50,000, by my estimates, 50,000 new daily infections identified by testing
[11:41.920 --> 11:44.360]  is a number that works for me.
[11:44.360 --> 11:49.320]  But the critical part about this, whether you set your number at 70 or at 60 or at 40
[11:49.320 --> 11:55.400]  or at 18, the important part here is that all of this that we've been talking about
[11:55.400 --> 12:00.200]  today, this dramatic reduction in all those cases, all the states I shared with you, those
[12:00.200 --> 12:05.320]  were previously called hotspots and now the numbers there are collapsing.
[12:05.320 --> 12:10.780]  The important thing to take away from all of that is that the United States as a country
[12:10.780 --> 12:18.520]  has hit natural, that means not caused by a vaccine, comprehensive, that means the summer
[12:18.520 --> 12:24.320]  months and the winter months, comprehensive herd immunity, which me, herd immunity, meaning
[12:24.320 --> 12:29.360]  such a large percentage of the population has already had it and thus has antibodies
[12:29.360 --> 12:33.240]  and is immune, and the susceptible population is so small.
[12:33.240 --> 12:36.520]  So we have natural, comprehensive herd immunity.
[12:36.520 --> 12:41.840]  Yeah, so we are going to still have new daily infections, but the numbers are just going
[12:41.840 --> 12:44.640]  to keep doing this and keep doing that.
[12:44.640 --> 12:48.380]  So yeah, this thing is essentially all over but the shouting.
[12:48.380 --> 12:55.360]  By the way, I do want to say people are still going to be dying, and I don't want to dismiss
[12:55.360 --> 12:56.360]  any of those deaths.
[12:56.360 --> 12:59.880]  I think a lot of people, when I speak statistically, when I say things like essentially it's all
[12:59.880 --> 13:04.760]  over but the shouting, somebody's always, some very emotional person is, you're so cruel,
[13:04.760 --> 13:06.360]  you don't care about the people who are dying.
[13:06.360 --> 13:07.760]  Yeah, I do.
[13:07.760 --> 13:08.920]  I can't change that.
[13:08.920 --> 13:12.040]  You can't change that if you're the person screaming that at your computer or your phone
[13:12.040 --> 13:13.480]  right now.
[13:13.480 --> 13:20.440]  We can't change that, but we can acknowledge that it's all over but the shouting.
[13:20.440 --> 13:26.320]  Last thought, if it is all over but the shouting, so does this mean we can take off all things
[13:26.320 --> 13:31.640]  or three or is it two or one mask, are these governors going to reopen their states now
[13:31.640 --> 13:33.760]  that it's all over but the shouting?
[13:33.760 --> 13:34.760]  That's a political equation.
[13:34.760 --> 13:36.840]  That's got nothing to do with anything we're talking about here.
[13:36.840 --> 13:38.040]  This is statistical.
[13:38.040 --> 13:39.600]  This is science.
[13:39.600 --> 13:43.960]  This is what's really happening, boots on the ground in America.
[13:43.960 --> 13:47.200]  That has nothing to do with the decisions governors are making.
[13:47.200 --> 13:51.140]  Those decisions are political, but I will say this.
[13:51.140 --> 13:56.000]  If you are in a state where you've got one of these typically left-leaning governors
[13:56.000 --> 14:00.760]  who's obsessed with destroying the economy to save some people or in their mind to save
[14:00.760 --> 14:05.280]  some people, they're really not saving anybody, you need to put political pressure on them.
[14:05.280 --> 14:12.520]  You need to make it clear if they don't open things back up right fucking now, you are
[14:12.520 --> 14:18.720]  going to work day and night feverishly to ensure that at the next election they do not
[14:18.720 --> 14:20.040]  get re-elected.
[14:20.040 --> 14:24.240]  If you don't put that pressure on them now that the numbers are collapsing, what are
[14:24.240 --> 14:25.240]  they going to say, right?
[14:25.480 --> 14:28.640]  Yeah, they're going to hold out a little bit, but you need to be stronger.
[14:28.640 --> 14:33.200]  You need to apply that pressure continuously over the next couple of weeks or months.
[14:33.200 --> 14:38.040]  You need to apply the pressure to these a-holes until they open things back up because having
[14:38.040 --> 14:43.880]  hit natural comprehensive herd immunity, unless somebody is high risk in which case they should
[14:43.880 --> 14:49.080]  be taking care of their own concerns like staying home, they should be wearing 47 masks,
[14:49.080 --> 14:53.640]  whatever their protocol, getting vaccinated, whatever their protocol is to make themselves
[14:53.640 --> 14:54.680]  safe, that's fine.
[14:54.680 --> 14:55.680]  They should do that.
[14:55.680 --> 14:59.680]  But for the rest of us, the nation, having hit natural comprehensive herd immunity,
[14:59.680 --> 15:03.960]  the correct thing right now as I'm talking to you is to open everything back up.
[15:03.960 --> 15:05.460]  But they're not going to do this.
[15:05.460 --> 15:12.000]  You need to put hardcore, like never stop, like multiple emails a day, tell all your
[15:12.000 --> 15:14.720]  friends, get on social media, spread it around.
[15:14.720 --> 15:15.720]  Political pressure.
[15:15.720 --> 15:19.760]  You will not hold office again if you don't open this community back up.
[15:19.760 --> 15:23.840]  If you don't put that political pressure on, yeah, eight months from now they'll still
[15:24.000 --> 15:25.000]  be fucking around.
[15:25.000 --> 15:26.000]  So it's up to you.