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Detected language: English
[00:00.000 --> 00:02.060]  I'm Dave Champion.
[00:02.060 --> 00:09.240]  Back when I was 17 years old, I was assisting a sensei teach a martial arts course.
[00:09.240 --> 00:14.920]  And it was a beginning course, the sensei was teaching the students how to escape from
[00:14.920 --> 00:16.580]  a headlock.
[00:16.580 --> 00:22.800]  So and myself and some other more advanced students were assisting the novices.
[00:22.800 --> 00:27.980]  So one of these novice guys, super nice guy, you're just one of these kind of silly, happy
[00:27.980 --> 00:35.980]  guys, he somehow got it in his head that he was going to show me after the class was over
[00:35.980 --> 00:41.420]  that he could get me in a headlock and I could not escape the headlock based on what he'd
[00:41.420 --> 00:47.180]  been taught because he had figured out how to get do the headlock in such a way that
[00:47.180 --> 00:50.260]  that escape mechanism would not work.
[00:50.260 --> 00:55.500]  So I'm just about to leave the studio and whoo, this arm comes around my neck, right?
[00:55.500 --> 00:58.060]  I have no idea who it is.
[00:58.060 --> 01:03.580]  And a second later, he's laying on the mat with his shoulder at a very uncomfortable
[01:03.580 --> 01:04.580]  angle.
[01:04.580 --> 01:12.460]  And the moral of that story was because he'd been taught that day, an hour earlier, how
[01:12.460 --> 01:20.020]  to escape, one method, one method of escaping a headlock, he assumed that that was it, that
[01:20.020 --> 01:24.980]  he now knew the answers even though there's a zillion different ways to escape a headlock.
[01:24.980 --> 01:30.860]  I share that with you to make the point that people sometimes, they get this viewpoint
[01:30.860 --> 01:34.140]  is like, oh, so this is it.
[01:34.140 --> 01:37.660]  They don't understand that, oh, that's part of it.
[01:37.660 --> 01:40.420]  But then there's this whole big part over here they know nothing about.
[01:40.420 --> 01:46.540]  I often refer to that euphemistically as a book might be 20 chapters and somebody has
[01:46.540 --> 01:50.700]  read four chapters in the book, you know, they don't really know there's 20 chapters,
[01:50.700 --> 01:56.180]  they've read four chapters, they're pretty impressed with themselves, yeah, right?
[01:56.180 --> 01:58.940]  They don't know what they don't know.
[01:58.940 --> 02:05.820]  And that is a challenge that I face when I present science issues or physiological issues
[02:05.820 --> 02:07.780]  and so forth.
[02:07.780 --> 02:12.700]  How much information, how many chapters in that book, how many chapters can I present
[02:12.700 --> 02:14.020]  in a video?
[02:14.020 --> 02:20.660]  And if there are more advanced chapters, is it time to present that more advanced information?
[02:20.700 --> 02:23.740]  Or are people's eyes just going to glaze over and they're going to tune out?
[02:23.740 --> 02:30.380]  Well, occasionally circumstances and time persuades me to go a little bit further and
[02:30.380 --> 02:32.940]  that's exactly where we're at today.
[02:40.380 --> 02:46.740]  Sweden's new daily infection numbers are exploding.
[02:46.740 --> 02:54.860]  And because of that some people have the misimpression that herd immunity had not actually
[02:54.860 --> 02:58.740]  come to Sweden back when we were talking about it months ago.
[02:58.740 --> 03:02.500]  So I'm going to cover three issues with you today.
[03:02.500 --> 03:12.420]  Herd immunity is a process changing behavioral patterns and how many infections occur in
[03:12.420 --> 03:13.420]  the home.
[03:13.420 --> 03:22.700]  And relevant to the question of, with these cases going crazy, is Sweden in herd immunity?
[03:22.700 --> 03:26.860]  I'm going to start out by showing you the graph that I used in yesterday's video.
[03:26.860 --> 03:29.860]  So it's only 24 hours difference, it's not going to make any difference.
[03:29.860 --> 03:36.740]  Showing you the 93-fold increase in cases since, I think it was late July, you'll see
[03:36.740 --> 03:37.740]  on the graph.
[03:37.740 --> 03:42.580]  But that will give you an idea of where Sweden's new daily infections have gone and then we'll
[03:42.580 --> 03:44.540]  talk about the three points.
[03:44.540 --> 03:45.540]  Here's the data graph.
[03:45.540 --> 03:50.300]  You can see back here, this is the traditional herd immunity pyramid that we've talked about
[03:50.300 --> 03:52.260]  time and time again concerning Sweden.
[03:52.260 --> 03:56.500]  Then you'll notice there was virtually no new infections and now right here you can
[03:56.500 --> 04:01.660]  see they start to tick up and of course here you can see they go almost vertical.
[04:01.660 --> 04:08.280]  All in all, in the period of time indicated by the red lines, there's a 93-fold increase
[04:08.280 --> 04:10.380]  in new infections.
[04:10.380 --> 04:17.460]  Sometimes I use analogies or physical gestures that turn out in the end not to be the wisest
[04:17.460 --> 04:18.460]  choice.
[04:18.460 --> 04:21.540]  For instance, some months and months ago when I was talking about herd immunity, I would
[04:21.540 --> 04:24.420]  often refer to it as Mother Nature's off switch.
[04:24.420 --> 04:28.900]  If you watch my videos, you've probably seen me do that quite a number of times.
[04:28.900 --> 04:31.700]  Then a couple months back, I had to sort of adjust that.
[04:31.700 --> 04:37.380]  I'm like, okay, so yeah, in terms of history, if you're looking at tens of thousands of
[04:37.380 --> 04:40.940]  years, it is turning off a light switch.
[04:40.940 --> 04:46.220]  But in terms of us here in the real world living out our very mundane lives, it's not
[04:46.220 --> 04:47.220]  like turning a switch.
[04:47.220 --> 04:52.900]  It's actually a process that takes, depending on the contagion someplace, between 20 to
[04:52.900 --> 04:57.100]  roughly 30 months, normally closer to the 30-month mark.
[04:57.100 --> 05:03.340]  So this, I regret using that months and months ago, but historically that's accurate.
[05:03.340 --> 05:05.940]  In the big timeline of history, that's accurate.
[05:05.940 --> 05:11.660]  It just gave the wrong impression to the audience because in fact, it is measured in,
[05:11.660 --> 05:17.660]  like I said, 20, 24, 30-month period for full herd immunity to kick in.
[05:17.660 --> 05:21.700]  In other words, it's an ongoing building process.
[05:21.700 --> 05:24.900]  I've talked about this before, but it bears repeating.
[05:24.900 --> 05:34.260]  That is that when an entire community or the lion's share change their behavioral patterns,
[05:34.260 --> 05:37.580]  it will change the infection pattern.
[05:37.580 --> 05:42.580]  In other words, where is that contagion going and who is it impacting?
[05:42.580 --> 05:48.280]  When you have mass change of behavioral patterns, you're going to have a considerable change
[05:48.280 --> 05:50.260]  in the infection pattern.
[05:50.260 --> 05:56.420]  On the low end, a study many, many, many months ago said that four out of five infections,
[05:56.420 --> 05:59.220]  80%, occur in the home.
[05:59.220 --> 06:02.860]  And a much more recent one, I believe out of South Korea about 60 days ago, said that
[06:02.860 --> 06:08.940]  98% of infections occur in the home.
[06:08.940 --> 06:14.740]  Like everywhere else in the Northern Hemisphere, it is now winter in Sweden.
[06:14.740 --> 06:18.520]  In the summertime, Swedes love to get out that sort of a cultural thing, to get out
[06:18.520 --> 06:21.640]  of the house and do a bunch of outdoor nature things.
[06:21.640 --> 06:27.440]  But once it gets bitterly cold, like any other humans, they go indoors and they predominantly
[06:27.440 --> 06:29.180]  stay indoors.
[06:29.180 --> 06:36.540]  And as we discussed, 80 to 98% of all infections occur in the home.
[06:36.540 --> 06:40.020]  So obviously, if you have a bunch of people who are spending their days out of the home
[06:40.020 --> 06:46.020]  doing all sorts of outdoor activities, that's going to give you one infection pattern.
[06:46.020 --> 06:53.780]  When all those people go inside and stay inside hour after hour after hour after day after
[06:54.420 --> 07:00.740]  day after day in close proximity to others in their home where nobody's social distancing
[07:00.740 --> 07:05.660]  in their home, nobody's wearing a mask in the home, nobody's going through the sanitizing
[07:05.660 --> 07:10.060]  protocols with virus-killing substances every couple hours in the home, nobody's doing
[07:10.060 --> 07:11.060]  that, right?
[07:11.060 --> 07:15.460]  So in the home, 80% to 98% of all infections occur.
[07:15.460 --> 07:21.140]  So when people go into the home, that's now where they're spending the lion's share of
[07:21.140 --> 07:22.140]  their time.
[07:22.580 --> 07:25.580]  Infections are going to go up just the way it is.
[07:25.580 --> 07:33.100]  I talked about contagions ending 20 to 30 months after the outbreak.
[07:33.100 --> 07:38.940]  And when herd immunity begins to kick in, of course, is questionable.
[07:38.940 --> 07:43.620]  You can usually only determine that looking back at the data.
[07:43.620 --> 07:45.460]  And then it grows and grows and grows and grows.
[07:45.460 --> 07:51.000]  In other words, the pool of people who have had it have antibodies and now cannot get
[07:51.080 --> 07:55.920]  it or give it continues to grow and the pool of susceptible people shrinks.
[07:55.920 --> 08:00.200]  But I want to take your attention back to the graph for a moment.
[08:00.200 --> 08:04.840]  This is, as I said, the traditional herd immunity pyramid.
[08:04.840 --> 08:09.080]  And of course, we see after that case, new infections are very, very low.
[08:09.080 --> 08:16.720]  And this is what may best be referred to as summer herd immunity.
[08:16.720 --> 08:21.360]  And what I mean by that is with the behavioral patterns, in this particular case of Sweden,
[08:21.360 --> 08:26.520]  but we can look at all sorts of other locations, with the behavioral pattern of Swedes, they
[08:26.520 --> 08:34.600]  had achieved herd immunity, herd immunity at that general time frame with that behavioral
[08:34.600 --> 08:36.560]  conduct pattern.
[08:36.560 --> 08:39.760]  But then everyone's freezing their ass off, so they go indoors.
[08:39.760 --> 08:40.760]  Then what happens?
[08:40.760 --> 08:42.080]  Yeah, this right here.
[08:42.560 --> 08:48.240]  And while it looks hellacious, especially given all of the nonsense by the media over
[08:48.240 --> 08:57.360]  the last nine or 10 or 11 months, it is what we may best refer to as winter herd immunity.
[08:57.360 --> 09:00.280]  So we had the summer herd immunity.
[09:00.280 --> 09:04.040]  Now Sweden is working on winter herd immunity.
[09:04.040 --> 09:07.500]  So if remember, we talk about herd immunity as a growing process.
[09:07.500 --> 09:09.740]  So what we had here was summer.
[09:09.740 --> 09:11.600]  We have now is winter.
[09:11.600 --> 09:15.280]  So the herd immunity process is continuing.
[09:15.280 --> 09:20.120]  The pool of people who have been infected, have antibodies, cannot get it or give it,
[09:20.120 --> 09:21.680]  is growing.
[09:21.680 --> 09:25.080]  And the pool of susceptible people is getting smaller and smaller and smaller.
[09:25.080 --> 09:33.000]  And you understand that Sweden is having as close to zero deaths, many days it is actually
[09:33.000 --> 09:38.000]  zero, as anyone could ever want in the midst of an outbreak.
[09:38.000 --> 09:40.800]  It's just deepening the herd immunity.
[09:41.200 --> 09:47.520]  It's increasing the progress towards that moment when this pool is so high and this
[09:47.520 --> 09:51.520]  pool is so low that the virus has nowhere to go.
[09:51.520 --> 09:57.000]  And that's when we have seen in all of history, but more so we'll say in the 20th and 21st
[09:57.000 --> 10:00.640]  century when we've actually been watching this with more scientific eyes, that's when
[10:00.640 --> 10:03.200]  we've seen these things just go away.
[10:03.200 --> 10:04.200]  Now they don't go away entirely.
[10:04.200 --> 10:08.600]  I mean, there are still, you know, a handful of cases of the Black Plague every year.
[10:08.600 --> 10:12.400]  So these viruses never really go away, but they cease to be a threat to the population
[10:12.400 --> 10:14.040]  on the whole.
[10:14.040 --> 10:16.920]  That's happened with every single pandemic in human history, and it's going to happen
[10:16.920 --> 10:18.400]  with SARS-CoV-2.
[10:18.400 --> 10:23.960]  But in order to get there, yeah, you need that pool to grow and this pool to shrink.
[10:23.960 --> 10:26.320]  And that's exactly what's happening in Sweden.
[10:26.320 --> 10:30.040]  I use them because I think they're a great example, but that's happening all over the
[10:30.040 --> 10:31.040]  world.
[10:31.040 --> 10:36.040]  The only difference is I'm sharing with you the big picture, my phrase that way, and the
[10:36.040 --> 10:40.080]  fact that especially considering Sweden's death are as close to zero as humanly possible
[10:40.080 --> 10:43.160]  in the middle of an outbreak, no one should be concerned about that, right?
[10:43.160 --> 10:45.120]  I'm giving you the big picture.
[10:45.120 --> 10:49.520]  By the way, when I say no one should be concerned, if a billion people were infected and virtually
[10:49.520 --> 10:51.600]  nobody was dying, why would you care, right?
[10:51.600 --> 10:54.560]  So that's kind of the position Sweden's in right now.
[10:54.560 --> 11:00.000]  If Europe and the United States had handled, I'm sorry, if most of Western Europe, excluding
[11:00.000 --> 11:04.560]  Sweden, had handled their business differently and if the United States had handled its business
[11:05.000 --> 11:06.720]  differently, we'd be in the same boat, but we didn't.
[11:06.720 --> 11:08.400]  We handled it the stupid way.
[11:08.400 --> 11:09.640]  So we're not there yet.
[11:09.640 --> 11:15.040]  But the good news is we are increasing that pool of people who have been infected and
[11:15.040 --> 11:20.320]  cannot get it and cannot give it, but we are decreasing the pool of susceptible people.
[11:20.320 --> 11:25.360]  I just wanted to share this because the media, of course, is pointing to every increase in
[11:25.360 --> 11:29.840]  infections and screaming that the sky is falling.
[11:30.240 --> 11:34.800]  Yeah, the media and a lot of these public health officials are the ultimate chicken little.
[11:36.160 --> 11:40.720]  Yeah, so I just wanted to give you a broad overview so that you understand that what
[11:40.720 --> 11:43.600]  the chicken littles are screaming isn't true.
[11:43.600 --> 11:45.280]  No, the sky is not falling.